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“Peace Paradox” and pandemic: A natural experiment of COVID-19 effects on African Jihadist groups

Institutions & Governance
COVID Madagascar health system World Bank / Henitsoa Rafalia

Madagascar health system under strain from COVID-19 pandemic. Photo Credit: World Bank / Henitsoa Rafalia

The impact of COVID-19 in conflict zones is not well documented as these areas are often inaccessible, dangerous, politically complex, and beyond the reach of the state. Some have argued that the impact of COVID-19 may aid African jihadists groups, allowing them to build popular support for their cause and proto-states by increasing service provision, stepping in where the state is failing in medical, water, and food provisions. This study investigates whether the COVID-19 outbreak weakens or increases terrorism attacks in Africa by using data on COVID-19 cases and events of terrorism attacks since January 2020. This study applies panel testing to analyze the behavior of African Jihadist groups (controlled by numbers of attacks) in relation to COVID-19, while controlling for African Jihadist specific characteristics. Results of this study are forthcoming.

  • Larissa Nawo
  • Henri Njangang


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