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Development Intervention Forecasting

India

Development interventions have traditionally relied on expert knowledge. Recent concerns about generalizability, transferability, and replication of experimental findings emphasize the need to shift from simply evaluating interventions to developing new strategies to understand what works where. In this space several basic questions remain unanswered, such as i) are locals or academic experts more knowledgeable about the causal effects of interventions, and ii) what empirical strategies can be employed to extract the most information about the effects of these interventions ex-ante?
Researchers partner with teams running several large pre-registered randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in Kenya, including a field experiment on the general equilibrium effects of unconditional cash transfers by CEGA Faculty Director Edward Miguel. They will then collect predictions of treatment effects on a range of outcomes from traditional academic experts, locals similar to intervention recipients, and several other groups. Finally, researchers will assess ex-post accuracy of predictions among these various groups by comparing elicited predictions to actual experimental treatment effects. Results forthcoming.

Funding
  • Operations
    $19,902
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