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Pre-Analysis Plans: A Stocktaking

The evidence-based community has held up pre-registration as a solution to the problem of research credibility, however without evidence that pre-registration works. However, given that PAPs induce significant costs for researchers in terms of time and energy, it is critical to evaluate their effectiveness in enhancing the credi bility of empirical research.
George Ofosu and Daniel Posner will provide an evidentiary base for assessing whether pre-analysis plans (PAPs) are effective in achieving their stated objectives of preventing “fishing,” reducing scope for the post-hoc adjustment of research hypotheses, and solving the “file drawer problem.” The authors plan to analyze a random sample of 300 studies that have been pre-registered on the AEA and EGAP registration platforms, evenly distributed across studies that are still in progress, completed and resulting in a publicly available paper, and completed but not resulting in a publicly available paper. Results forthcoming.

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