P-Curve & Evidentiary Value of Social Psychology Publications

Leif Nelson, Michael O’Donnell, Fausto Gonzalez, and Hannah Perfecto will utilize p-curve, a new meta-analytic tool to assess the evidentiary value of studies from social psychology. This technique involves an analysis of the distribution of p-values to determine the likelihood that a study provides evidence for the existence of an effect. In the event that there is not evidentiary value in a study, p-curve can also determine whether a study is powered such that it would detect an effect 33% of the time, given that such effect indeed exists. The project applies the p-curve technique to every empirical paper in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology between 2006 and 2016—almost 400 articles in total. Additionally, the project will conduct a direct replication of four studies from this period and compare the results to p-curve’s predictions. Results forthcoming.