Understanding the Impacts of a New Zambian Copper Mine on Local Welfare

Policy Context

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) host a dominant share of global production for minerals essential to the energy transition such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and copper. Understanding the impacts of large-scale mining operations on community welfare, labor markets, social stability, and environmental health is, therefore, critically important. Research on the topic is difficult to conduct and the evidence base is thin. Robust and well-run studies have the potential to directly inform the practices of companies involved in extraction and the governments that regulate them.

This project aims to evaluate the impacts of the new Mingomba copper mine on local welfare in Zambia. The Mingomba project is considered the world’s highest-grade undeveloped copper deposit. The research team has been prospectively collecting data, enabling more credible causal estimates than the current literature, particularly regarding the key roles of migration and remittances in shaping local welfare.

This is an independent research project, in no part influenced by funders or partners. All findings, data, and code will be publicly available.

Study Design

Phase 1 of this project (January 2026 – June 2027) deploys two principal components.

The first component is a panel survey. Baseline surveys will be conducted across approximately 4,000 households in 400 villages, which will be followed over time. The research team will work with KoBold Metals’ geology and data science teams to identify counterfactual mine locations that are highly prospective for copper deposits similar to those at Mingomba, creating a representative control group that allows researchers to compare how the opening of the Mingomba copper mine impacts local welfare (difference-in-differences).

The second component is an outcome tracking study for workers at the mine development site. This approach will track prospective job aspirants that were and were not given positions to identify the causal effects of mine employment on workers and their families, including consumption, investments, health, and child education.

Results and Policy Lessons

Results forthcoming.