Recalibrating After a Bumpy Ride for Global Development

Director of Operations, Lauren Russell, reflects on the how the global development landscape has changed over the past year and introduces CEGA’s 2026 strategic goals.

About a year ago today, everything stopped. On January 20, 2025, the US State Department ordered an immediate pause on nearly all foreign aid spending, impacting global development activities writ large, and hurling CEGA’s work into limbo. We know now that these “stop work orders” would result in the termination of thousands of activities and billions of dollars of aid, that USAID would be shuttered, and critical infrastructure enabling global development across the world, built over many decades, would be crippled. 

CEGA, specifically, lost six awards, millions of dollars, and the singular opportunity to lead a transformational, multi-stakeholder initiative to dramatically improve the cost-effectiveness of USAID’s efforts to fight global poverty and promote economic growth.

Now, in January 2026, we’re (mostly) on the other side of the chaos. We remain motivated to push forward and have carefully recalibrated our priorities (updated from July 2025). CEGA is steadily (re)gaining traction, in part because we’ve doubled down on our core comparative advantages: our interdisciplinary approach, use of data science and other novel methods, and capacity building expertise. 

Here’s what we’re planning this year and how we hope to grow:

1. Invest in frontier research that answers timely policy questions.

LLMs, measurement tools, and the rapid deployment of AI systems have changed many industries, including global development. How do we know if these new tools and systems work, especially at scale and in high-stakes situations? How do we mitigate errors and biases, and protect the privacy of users and beneficiaries? CEGA will answer these questions by rigorously evaluating AI applications. In parallel, our new Data Privacy Lab is developing and testing innovative privacy-enhancing technologies (PETs) to mitigate the privacy vulnerabilities of AI/ML systems used to better target and deliver aid in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Meanwhile, CEGA is building a new research agenda on carbon markets that can serve as vital sources of capital for sustainable development. CEGA will harness nontraditional data passively collected through mobile devices, satellites, and other decentralized sources across all of these activities.

2. Adapt and scale effective capacity building models.

CEGA’s capacity building programs go far beyond training: they strengthen technical skills, enable knowledge partnerships, build data infrastructure, and promote a culture of data use in policymaking. The Togo Data Lab, a joint effort led with Togo’s Ministry of Public Service Efficiency and Digital Transformation is an “embedded” lab that has established a sustainable data science function within the Togolese government. It’s helped the Ministry integrate new data sources and spatial optimization models into their decision-making, informing land use, investments in hospital infrastructure, digitization of government databases, and more. As global funding for development shrinks, this type of evidence-backed decision-making is more valuable than ever. CEGA is invested in replicating this model and is actively building new partnerships to do so. Simultaneously, CEGA is adapting existing capacity building models to address specific policy questions from governments and other development actors.

3. Institutionalize cost-effectiveness evidence.

The US is not the only government that reduced foreign aid spending in 2025—the UK and EU also followed suit. This squeeze means that the global development community must do more with less. But in the absence of reliable and comparable data about how much development programs cost, governments and NGOs have to base programming and policy decisions on rough (often inaccurate) guesses about return on investment. CEGA is filling these knowledge gaps with new resources, curricula, and trustworthy cost prediction tools. We are building cost prediction models that can enable development actors—policymakers, donors, ministry officials, program managers, and others—to look backward to compare the cost-effectiveness of certain anti-poverty programs, and forward to predict the cost of similar development interventions in new settings and contexts. In the meantime, our new Peace per Dollar initiative is working to compile, analyze and publish information on the cost-effectiveness of peacebuilding interventions and CEGA-supported research suggests that ending poverty would be surprisingly affordable.

4. Test promising solutions at scale.

Reductions in foreign aid means that LMIC governments (and NGOs) are better positioned than ever to test ideas that can improve millions of lives. At the same time, there’s a lot of existing research about what can work to improve well-being in specific contexts. Drawing on this evidence-base, CEGA will work directly with governments and large international NGOs to develop innovative solutions and rigorously test them at scale. We are currently collaborating with the Government of Punjab to scale a novel drug prevention program to more than 750K students, with One Acre Fund in Malawi to scale a planning tool to reduce seasonal hunger for 4 million households, and with a large international NGO to build an initiative evaluating their signature programs that operate at scale. 

5. Make practical insights available to decision-makers.

CEGA will meet decision-makers where they’re at—literally and figuratively. To effectively share evidence with the right people, at the right time, and in the right format, we will organize meetings with decision-makers on the sidelines of major global conferences and produce new types of timely, relevant and engaging content. We will also organize our own convenings in the countries we seek to serve, for example, our flagship Africa Evidence Summit. Meanwhile, we are working with partners to standardize “smart buys” for global development (i.e. programs with the best value for money), and to synthesize new and existing (cost) evidence on user-friendly platforms.

This past year taught us to take nothing for granted. By leaning into CEGA’s nimble and responsive model—and our comparative advantages—we can overcome formidable challenges and inspire real policy change. We couldn’t do any of this without our diverse network of collaborators and supporters and are grateful for your partnership. Here’s to smoother sailing in 2026.