Examining an Aging Population in Sub-Saharan Africa

In Preparing for an Aging Africa: Data-Driven Priorities for Economic Research and Policy (NBER Working Paper 31750), researchers Madeline E. Duhon, Edward Miguel, Amos Njuguna, Daniela Pinto Veizaga, and Michael W. Walker review previous literature and conduct new analysis drawing on 35 rounds of nationally representative household survey data from 8 countries to identify challenges facing Sub-Saharan Africa due to its aging population. The UN World Population Prospects projects the over-60 population in Sub-Saharan Africa will increase from 50 million in 2020 to 600 million by 2100. This represents a shift in demographic composition, with individuals above age 60 constituting 5 percent of the population in 2020 and nearly 20 percent by 2100. Consequently, the old-age dependency ratio, the proportion of individuals aged 60+ to those aged 15–59, will increase by the century’s end.

The researchers highlight that Sub-Saharan Africa currently lags in healthcare and public support systems compared to other low- or middle-income countries (LMICs) and high-income countries (HICs). The region’s governments spend a smaller share of GDP on health, leading to fewer hospital beds and medical professionals per capita. Approximately 80 percent of health budgets are allocated to infectious diseases, with little spending on non communicable conditions, which disproportionately affect the elderly. They highlight that — according to data from the International Labor Organization (ILO) — only about one percent of GDP is spent on pensions and other social programs for older individuals, compared to an average of 4 percent in other LMICs and 8 percent in HICs, respectively.

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