Cash Transfers Dramatically Cut Infant Mortality in Kenya, New Research Finds

Berkeley, CA (18 Aug. 2025) — With the global development community facing financial upheaval, global development goals increasingly out of reach, and the need for aid greater than ever, new evidence points to a cost-effective tool to save lives: cash transfers. A randomized controlled trial has found that unconditional cash transfers reduced infant mortality by 48% in rural Kenya — illustrating the powerful role of evidence as a partner to policy and practice.

Working with the nonprofit GiveDirectly, researchers studied the effects of one-time, unconditional cash payments of $1,000 to 10,500 households across Siaya county, Kenya. The payments were delivered via mobile money between 2014 and 2017. The research team subsequently conducted multiple surveys, collecting census information from households about changes in family composition, employment, health behavior, and more — including data on over 100,000 births.

Published as an NBER Working Paper today, the study from Edward Miguel and economists Grady Killeen, Nick Shankar, and Michael Walker at UC Berkeley and Dennis Egger at the University of Oxford found that unconditional cash transfers to pregnant mothers led to 48% fewer infant deaths before age one and 45% fewer child deaths before age five. The decrease in deaths was likely the result of increased hospital births, more rest for pregnant women, and improved nutrition. The positive impacts were most pronounced in villages close to health clinics, suggesting a strong complementary relationship with health infrastructure.

A previous study from Egger, Miguel, Walker, and Johannes Haushofer (Cornell) and Paul Niehaus (UCSD) found that these same cash transfers reduced poverty and improved consumption in Kenyan households. Importantly, it also found positive effects on households that did not receive the cash transfer, documenting a spillover effect that boosted the local economy by a factor of 2.5 for every dollar transferred.

The reduction in deaths in this study are on par with many of the most effective global health interventions, like malaria prevention and routine vaccination. GiveWell, the donor known for its rigorous evaluation of cost-effective interventions, has forecast an approximate 50% cut in US health aid spending over the next few years. And a recent analysis in The Lancet suggests that the shuttering of USAID will lead to an estimated five million deaths of children under five by 2030, driven in part by maternal and perinatal deaths. Given the stakes, the effects of cash transfers are considerably more dramatic when considering the program was not even designed to save lives.

With millions of lives on the line, global development leaders should follow the evidence on what works — and invest in more research where it’s lacking,” said Miguel, CEGA Faculty Co-Director and a coauthor on the study. “Far from being something abstract, this study shows that evidence and data can be powerful tools to save lives.

CEGA Executive Director Carson Christiano recently reflected on the rich evidence, innovative insights, and cutting-edge tools that the center has generated for decision makers in low- and middle-income countries to improve lives. Today, these leaders are forced to do more with less, and research like this study can identify the best application of cost-effective approaches like unconditional cash transfers. While there is no one silver bullet to save lives and reduce poverty, what’s clear is this: we simply cannot afford not to invest in evidence.

###

Notes to the Editor

About CEGA
The Center for Effective Global Action (CEGA) is a hub for research, training, and innovation headquartered at the University of California, Berkeley. The Center generates insights that leaders can use to improve policies, programs, and people’s lives. Its academic network includes more than 170 faculty, 88 scholars from low- and middle-income countries, and hundreds of graduate students — from a variety of academic disciplines around the world — that produce rigorous evidence about what works to expand education, health, and economic opportunities for people living in poverty.

About GiveDirectly
GiveDirectly is a nonprofit that lets people send money directly to the world’s poorest, no strings attached. In the last decade, GiveDirectly has delivered cash to over 1.7 million people across 15 countries.

Media Contacts
CEGA
Matthew Kertman
Director of Strategic Communications
kertman@berkeley.edu

GiveDirectly
Yonah Lieberman
Senior Manager, Press and Strategic Communications
yonah.lieberman@givedirectly.org